Crafting Simulator

This tool runs the same formulas the server uses when you craft: the success and exceptional rolls, and the full magic-roll engine — every floor term, every band, the exact probability of each level. Set up your crafter below; the odds update live, and the forge button crafts items one by one so you can watch the distribution happen. The machine itself is explained on Crafting Magic Items.

Reading the result

• The bars are exact probabilities, not samples — the same arithmetic the in-game Details toggle uses, enumerated over every possible tool roll, luck roll and score. The forge buttons sample that distribution, which is why a short tally wanders before it settles onto the bars.
• Move the material first. It is the dominant term and the cap in one: watch the bars march right — and stop dead at the material's ceiling.
• Then the tool. A Valorite tool with nothing else turns a plain GM setup noticeably richer at the top end; it also feeds the exceptional stat directly (+5% per tier).
• The secondary bars never move with the material — that is not a bug, it is the design: accuracy, durability and a grimoire's enchantment are uncapped and ignore the crafting material. Your tool, luck, mastery and essence push them.
• Slayer needs three things at once: an exceptional craft, a colored material, and the mastery's slayer perk — the stat is the product of all three, per successful craft.
• Skill vs. recipe: success climbs linearly across the recipe's skill window — 50 points wide in Blacksmithy, 40 in Fletching, 25 in Tailoring and Carpentry (a handful of recipes differ; the craft pages list exact ranges). Tailoring, Carpentry and Fletching start at a 50% floor, the others at 0%. The exceptional penalty eases from −60% at skill 95 to −45% at 120 — the last stretch is skill-scroll territory — and until your success chance clears that penalty on its own, the exceptional chance is a hard 0%: no tool, perk or town bonus can rescue it.

Caveats

The simulator covers the standard magic craft: success, exceptional, the magic rolls and the slayer perk. Not modeled: the mastery ultimates (the Fortunes — material refunds, golden parts, charged weapons, rares), batch crafts like arrows, gathering-tool accuracy rolls, and the Craft for Quest toggle. The recipe list and its skill windows are generated straight from the server's craft tables; the maker's mark and material selection gates are assumed met.

Share a build: Copy share link puts the whole setup into the page address.

Related

• Crafting Magic Items — the machine, explained
• Crafting Overview — the shared crafting rules
• Skill Masteries · Mastery Planner — where the perk levels come from
• Armor Simulator · Weapon Damage Simulator · Spell Damage Simulator — the other calculators